ResearchThesis launch

AI, Atoms & Association.

Our thesis for the next frontier of sovereignty. Investing with conviction, exiting at consensus.

Outlier VenturesJun 20267 min readAIAtomsAssociation
OV · 005 · Fund II thesis · 2026AI, Atoms & AssociationJamie Burke
$275T+Sovereignty market by 2036
$2.75TSovereignty at just 1% of the market
7Investible domains within Triple A
$150B+New categories we backed, worth today
01Seasoned frontier investor

We are a seasoned frontier investor and enter early when four conditions are true.

01 · CapabilityMore than an idea, less than a product

We back visionary ideas once there are first signs the technology is real.

02 · EconomicsPlausible, not yet at scale

First paying customers or economic activity happening with first signs of possible value capture.

03 · PoliticsOpen and unclear, not banned

Crypto sat in a grey zone for years, and that ambiguity was the opportunity. We avoid outright bans and bets that only pay off once a law passes.

04 · DeploymentSomewhere to ship it today

Mainstream can be years away, but there has to be a real market to enter now, not just a future one.

02Financial sovereignty bet

In 2013, we were among the first in the world to bet on financial sovereignty.

Fund I (2013–2026) treated crypto as the first sovereignty primitives: instruments for digital ownership, peer-to-peer settlement, and coordination without intermediaries. Bitcoin proved a sovereign digital store of value. Ethereum proved that money could be programmable with permissionless market creation, settlement, and coordination.

2013 entry · TAM~$1.5BBitcoin + forks; stablecoins did not exist
2026 exit · TAM~$3.5T$321B stablecoins, $33T 2025 volume
Multiple~2,300×~82% CAGR over 13y

Sources: CoinGecko, DefiLlama, Artemis, Visa Onchain Analytics, Chainalysis, OV internal calculation.

Fund I proved the model in crypto. The Triple A thesis applies it to new frontiers.

03Categories we pioneered

We backed new categories, often with first cheques, that are today worth $150B+.

The Convergence Thesis that OV underwrote produced category-defining investments before those categories had names. And several years on, across multiple cycles, they are the major categories delivering tangible value.

Category First investment Investments Market cap
Decentralized AI 2017 Fetch, Ocean, NEAR, Hedera ~$50B+
DePIN / Physical AI 2017 IOTA, peaq, AUKI, Mawari, dedicated DePIN accelerators ~$25B+
RWA Tokenization 2020 Aptos, Polygon, DIA, tokenized RWAs ~$50B+
Privacy / ZK 2019 Secret Network, first-ever dedicated privacy accelerator ~$15B+
Autonomous Agents 2017 Cudos, Exabits, Fetch, Biconomy account abstraction, agent payment rails ~$10B+

Sources: CoinGecko sector indices, Messari, DefiLlama, Artemis, OV internal calculation of aggregate category market cap.

Each seed investment was 8–10 years ahead of consensus.

04The Triple A thesis

Our Triple A thesis: Sovereignty becomes a $275T+ market by 2036.

The global order is fracturing and trust in its institutions is falling. Nation states, companies, and individuals all want infrastructure they control — they seek sovereignty.

AICognitive sovereignty

Sovereignty over intelligence. Who controls the compute, the models, and what they produce.

AtomsManufacturing, Biological, Orbital sovereignty

Sovereignty over production. Who can build what, where and how fast at the edge (factories, labs, satellites).

AssociationAssociative, Financial sovereignty

Sovereignty over money, governance, and law. How humans, institutions, and agents make agreements that hold.

2036 forward projection of cross-domain sovereign infrastructure spend. Sources: McKinsey Global Institute, WEF, IMF, BIS, OV internal estimates.

Generative AI drives the cost of producing anything digital toward zero. Verification becomes the scarce input.
AI, Atoms & Association
05Sovereignty premium

We will underwrite solutions that command a sovereignty premium.

01Privacy by default

Nothing is revealed unless the user chooses to reveal it. Privacy is normal commerce (cash worked this way for centuries).

02Permissionless by architecture

Anyone can join, build, or transact. Nobody’s permission needed, protecting against censorship and de-platforming.

03Verifiable by anyone

Anyone can verify the system does what it claims, not just whoever runs it. Math replaces trust.

04Exit is built-in

Users hold the keys. They can leave anytime and take their assets, data, and vote with them. No institution or platform offers such an exit.

06Investible domains

Seven investible domains within Triple A.

Cognitive$100T+2036 TAM

Sovereign chip design, attested inference, open-weight model stacks.

SignalSovereign AI programmes live across UAE, EU, India, China; geopolitically driven.

Financial$20T+2036 TAM

Programmable money, on-chain settlement, tokenized real-world assets, agent payments.

SignalStablecoins $321B circulating, $33T/yr settled; AgentFi to drive money movement at exponential scale.

Associative$5T+2036 TAM

Network states, charter cities, machine-first legal rails, agent personhood.

SignalMachine-first legal rails forming; AI legal-tech compounding 33% CAGR.

Biological$50T+2036 TAM

Bio-foundries, biosecurity, longevity, edge pharma.

SignalBio-foundries operating outside pharma; AI-driven drug discovery scaling.

Manufacturing$20T+2036 TAM

Sovereign factories, verifiable supply chains, robotics fleet identity and coordination.

SignalReshoring and defence onshoring active.

Orbital$5T+2036 TAM

Sovereign satellite networks, LEO coordination.

SignalMulti-operator race live (Starlink, IRIS², Guowang, Kuiper).

Energy$75T+2036 TAM

Energy powers all domains; distributed grids, SMRs / micro-reactors, energy DePIN.

SignalSovereign generation for AI compute.

2036 forward projections. Sources: McKinsey, WEF, IEA WEO 2024, BloombergNEF, Morgan Stanley Space Economy, BIS, OV internal estimates.

07Illustrative investment areas

Illustrative areas we explore across Triple A.

AI · Cognitive sovereignty

  • Sovereign AI compute layer: DePIN inference markets, attested compute, orchestration.
  • Generative AI for atoms: foundation models for materials, drug design, manufacturing, robotics.
  • Verifiable AI: zkML, attested inference, agent-verification rails.
  • User-owned AI: agent identity, human-agent interfaces, personal compute.

Atoms · Manufacturing, Biological, Orbital sovereignty

  • Bio-sensor DePIN: continuous biomarker streams, token-attested/verified at the source.
  • Bio-foundry + distributed pharma synthesis: bioprinting, lab automation, peptide-synthesis networks.
  • Physical AI: fleet coordination, machine identity, telemetry, payments, settlement.
  • Sovereign orbital coordination: ground-station DePIN, orbital routing, space-data markets, sovereign space-AI.

Association · Associative, Financial sovereignty

  • New on-chain capital formation primitives: conviction markets, prediction markets, agentic capital allocation.
  • Tokenized real-asset markets: productive RWAs, outcome-based machine networks, AI-native market structure.
  • Agentic infrastructure: agent identity, personhood, payment rails, agent-to-agent contracts, AI-governed DAOs.
  • Post-quantum sovereignty primitives: quantum-resistant cryptography, migration tooling.
08Addressable infrastructure market

Sovereignty at just 1% of the market is a $2.75T opportunity by 2036.

Capture is the share of the $275T sovereignty market that runs on the kind of infrastructure we back.

0.5%$1.4Tcapture
1%$2.75Tcapture
2%$5.5Tcapture
5%$13.75Tcapture
10%$27.5Tcapture

Sovereignty’s growth path mirrors crypto’s last decade. Triple A runs the same playbook on a market roughly 80× larger than crypto today.

09Frontier tech lifecycle

Every frontier follows the same curve. OV’s edge is timing: we enter at discovery and exit at consensus.

  1. 01Discovery

    Pre-regulatory, pre-consensus.

    Entry
  2. 02Speculative Surge

    Hype, capital floods in.

    Partial exit
  3. 03Correction

    Drawdown, capital flees.

    Re-entry
  4. 04Consolidation

    Survivors build, real adoption.

  5. 05Institutionalisation

    Incumbents capture, exits realised.

    Full exit

Fund I bets have already traced every stage of this curve across Crypto 1.0, Atoms/Physical AI (AUKI, Mawari), and AI (FET exit at peak). Triple A thesis rides the same arc across AI, Atoms, and Association in parallel.

10Why now

Six shifts are happening at once.

01De-globalization is splitting the world

Post-WWII order fragmenting. UAE, UK, EU, India, China, and Japan each building their own stack.

02AI collapses the cost of synthesis

Generative AI drives the cost of producing anything digital toward zero. Verification becomes the scarce input.

03Physical infrastructure is the next bottleneck

Software is no longer the bottleneck. Physical things, hardware, energy, and materials are.

04Everyone wants infrastructure they control

Nations, companies, neo-collectives and individuals all building in parallel.

05The agent economy arrives

Agents already pay each other, contract A2A on-chain, and coordinate faster than humans can.

06Crypto went institutional

Fund I’s market went mainstream with stablecoins settling $33T a year and AI × crypto leading the industry.

11Why us

We’ve been investing in each of these shifts since 2013.

  • Global coverageOV Base Camp ran across all major continents. Led crypto adoption in LATAM and EMEA with a global founder network across jurisdictions.
  • Decentralized AI since 2018Called AI × crypto convergence before consensus. Building portfolio across decentralized compute, model marketplaces, federated learning, small language models.
  • Physical AI portfolioInvested early in machine infrastructure and solutions, such as M2M settlement, spatial and edge computing, and a machine-economy L1. Backing half of the InterCognitive Foundation members.
  • Sovereignty primitivesBacked oracle networks, RWA tokenisation, and ZK privacy before they were categories — as investor and first-ever global accelerator.
  • Autonomous agents portfolioBacked account abstraction that lets agents transact on their own. Built positions across on-chain agent payments, settlement, and early governance experiments.
  • Institutional crypto recordRanked a top-three most active early-stage crypto investor. Backed the 2013–2026 institutional build-out across payments, tooling, settlement, and on/off ramps.
12Investment instruments

We can invest through any instrument and surface.

Most funds are limited to a narrow set: some do equity only, some add tokens. Triple A is structured for all three groups: traditional, crypto-native, and emerging asset classes and markets.

Traditional
  • Equity: early-stage venture, pre-seed → Series A
  • Public equities and RWAs: thesis-aligned listed equities and tokenised RWAs
  • Fund-of-funds: stakes in specialist micro-funds that widen our deal flow
Crypto-native
  • Tokens: pre-ICO, launchpad/ICO, liquid in-market utility and governance
  • DeFi: LP, lending, staking, restaking
  • NFTs and IP rights: programmable ownership of assets and content
Emerging
  • Prediction markets: markets that price the odds of real-world outcomes
  • Conviction markets: markets for long-term commitments, OV sub-thesis
  • Agents as an asset class: autonomous AI agents as economic entities
13Uniquely positioned

Among 30+ active funds, OV alone combines early-stage entry with coverage across all sovereignty domains.

Financial-only1domain
Mid-domain2–3domains
Broad4–5domains
OV Triple A thesisAllfull coverage

Includes only funds with active crypto / Web3 exposure; placements illustrative; multi-stage firms shown at their most active stage.

This space fills as our portfolio matures.

Field notes from the frontier: new theses, research and essays by email.

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